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How the Gift Re Pricing Lab works: public Indian loss data, a conditional WGAN-GP for the body of the distribution, a Generalized Pareto tail fitted on real excesses, and an RBC-style capital charge.
Why the phase of the cycle can be inferred but never known, how the indicator chain is organised, and the sector rotation rules that follow from it. The framework behind the Cycle Compass.
Under a fixed 150% solvency rule, capital is a cost of doing business. Under RBC, capital is the price of each risk you write, and pricing, modelling and capital become one decision.